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Fact check

Is it true: Lancet Iraq mortality surveys: 2004 + 2006 casualty estimates suppression?

Partially True3% confidence

Partly — it's more complicated than the claim suggests.

Roberts et al. (Lancet 2004) estimated ~98,000 excess deaths; Burnham et al. (Lancet 2006) estimated ~655,000. Both publicly dismissed by Bush and Blair without methodological counter-evidence. Donor non-disclosure (Open Society Institute) and pre-release political briefings raised transparency concerns. ORB 2007 produced higher estimates; WHO/COSIT IFHS 2008 produced lower estimates. Methodological debate among epidemiologists remains unresolved.

The claim

Two peer-reviewed cluster-sample surveys published in The Lancet — Roberts et al. (2004) estimating approximately 98,000 excess deaths, and Burnham et al. (2006) estimating approximately 655,000 exces

Key evidence

Bush and Blair dismissed surveys without commissioning independent review

Burnham et al. 2006: peer-reviewed, published in The Lancet

Read the full evidence file

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