Egypt Warning to Israel Before Oct 7 2023 (Intelligence-Share Claims)
Introduction
The 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on southern Israel — the largest single-day killing of Jewish people since the Holocaust — immediately prompted questions about intelligence failure. Within days, reports emerged that Egypt had warned Israel of an imminent major Hamas attack before it occurred. The claim became a significant element in the broader October 7 intelligence-failure analysis and in arguments about Israeli government culpability.
This entry examines the specific Egypt-warning claim separately from the broader intelligence-failure analysis, because it has a distinct evidentiary basis involving named officials and specific dates.
What Was Reported and By Whom
On 9 October 2023, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly made statements consistent with Egypt having conveyed warnings. On the same date, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry publicly stated that Egypt had warned Israel of ''something big'' from Gaza in the days before October 7. The phrase ''three days before'' became the commonly cited timeframe in media reporting.
Multiple outlets including the Times of Israel, Associated Press, and Axios reported the Egyptian warning claim in the first days after October 7, citing Israeli and Egyptian officials. An Egyptian intelligence official was quoted by AP stating that Egypt had repeatedly warned Israel in the days before the attack that Hamas was planning something significant.
Israeli Government Response
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu''s office denied that Netanyahu had received a specific warning about the attack''s nature, scale, or timing. The PMO statement distinguished between general threat assessments and actionable intelligence specifying a mass-casualty cross-border assault.
The Israeli intelligence community''s internal response was more complex. The Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee held hearings in October 2023 at which intelligence officials testified. The specific content of those testimonies — including whether Egyptian intelligence conveyed operationally specific warnings — was partially classified.
State Comptroller Report — July 2024
The Israeli State Comptroller published a report in July 2024 examining the October 7 intelligence failure. The report identified systemic failures in threat assessment, including an underweighting of warning indicators in the weeks before the attack. The report did not resolve the specific question of what the Egyptian warning contained or whether it was acted upon.
What Is Established vs. Disputed
Established: Egyptian officials made public statements consistent with a pre-October-7 warning having been conveyed. Israeli officials confirmed receipt of some form of threat communication. General threat warnings about Gaza were part of the intelligence picture in late September and early October 2023.
Disputed: Whether the Egyptian communication constituted a specific, operationally actionable warning about a mass-casualty attack on a specific date versus a general threat-level elevation. Whether the warning, whatever its specificity, reached decision-makers in a form that should have triggered a defensive response.
Not established: That Israel deliberately ignored a specific warning (as opposed to failing to act on general threat intelligence under cognitive and institutional biases). That the Egyptian warning was suppressed for political reasons.
Verdict
Partially true. Egyptian officials conveyed threat warnings to Israel before October 7. The specific content, precision, and actionability of those warnings remain disputed between the two governments. The claim that Egypt warned Israel of ''an imminent major attack three days before'' has partial support in public statements from named officials; the claim that Israel knowingly ignored a specific, actionable warning of the October 7 attack''s scale and nature is not established.
What Would Change Our Verdict
- Declassification of the specific Egyptian intelligence communication transmitted before October 7
- Israeli State Comptroller or Knesset committee findings specifying the content and recipients of the Egyptian warning
- Direct testimony from the Egyptian intelligence official who conveyed the warning
Evidence Filters8
Egyptian FM Shoukry publicly confirmed pre-attack warning
SupportingStrongEgyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry stated publicly on 9 October 2023 that Egypt had warned Israel of an imminent significant threat from Gaza before the 7 October attack. This is a named senior official making a specific on-record claim, not anonymous sourcing.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant's statements consistent with receipt of warning
SupportingIsraeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant made statements in the days after October 7 that were interpreted as consistent with Israel having received some form of threat communication from Egypt before the attack. Gallant did not specifically confirm or deny the Egyptian warning.
Rebuttal
Gallant's statements were not explicit confirmations of a specific Egyptian warning. They are consistent with, but do not independently establish, the claim that a specific pre-attack warning was received and logged.
Netanyahu PMO denied receiving specific actionable warning
DebunkingStrongPrime Minister Netanyahu's office issued a denial stating that Netanyahu had not received a specific warning about the attack's nature, scale, or timing. The PMO distinguished between general threat assessments and operationally specific intelligence.
AP Egyptian intelligence official quote — 'something big' from Gaza
SupportingThe Associated Press quoted an Egyptian intelligence official stating that Egypt had repeatedly warned Israel in the days before October 7 that Hamas was planning something significant. The AP report is consistent with Shoukry's public statement and with other early reporting.
Israeli State Comptroller report Jul 2024 — systemic intelligence failure
SupportingThe Israeli State Comptroller's July 2024 report documented systemic failures in threat assessment before October 7, including underweighting of warning indicators. The report did not resolve the specific Egyptian warning content but confirmed the broader intelligence-failure picture.
Knesset committee testimony partially classified
SupportingWeakIntelligence officials testified before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in October 2023 about the pre-October-7 warning picture. Portions of that testimony were classified, leaving the public record incomplete on the specific Egyptian warning content.
Rebuttal
Classification of intelligence committee testimony is standard practice and does not constitute evidence of cover-up. The classified portions may or may not contain information about the Egyptian warning.
No evidence Israel deliberately ignored a specific operational warning
DebunkingStrongThe distinction between receiving a general threat-elevation warning and receiving a specific operational warning with date, location, and method is critical. No declassified evidence establishes that Israel received the latter and consciously chose not to act.
Egyptian intelligence-sharing with Israel: documented cooperation channel
SupportingEgypt and Israel have maintained intelligence-sharing channels as part of their 1979 peace treaty relationship and subsequent security cooperation. The existence of such a channel makes the warning claim operationally plausible; it does not establish the specific content of any pre-October-7 communication.
Evidence Cited by Believers6
Egyptian FM Shoukry publicly confirmed pre-attack warning
SupportingStrongEgyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry stated publicly on 9 October 2023 that Egypt had warned Israel of an imminent significant threat from Gaza before the 7 October attack. This is a named senior official making a specific on-record claim, not anonymous sourcing.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant's statements consistent with receipt of warning
SupportingIsraeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant made statements in the days after October 7 that were interpreted as consistent with Israel having received some form of threat communication from Egypt before the attack. Gallant did not specifically confirm or deny the Egyptian warning.
Rebuttal
Gallant's statements were not explicit confirmations of a specific Egyptian warning. They are consistent with, but do not independently establish, the claim that a specific pre-attack warning was received and logged.
AP Egyptian intelligence official quote — 'something big' from Gaza
SupportingThe Associated Press quoted an Egyptian intelligence official stating that Egypt had repeatedly warned Israel in the days before October 7 that Hamas was planning something significant. The AP report is consistent with Shoukry's public statement and with other early reporting.
Israeli State Comptroller report Jul 2024 — systemic intelligence failure
SupportingThe Israeli State Comptroller's July 2024 report documented systemic failures in threat assessment before October 7, including underweighting of warning indicators. The report did not resolve the specific Egyptian warning content but confirmed the broader intelligence-failure picture.
Knesset committee testimony partially classified
SupportingWeakIntelligence officials testified before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in October 2023 about the pre-October-7 warning picture. Portions of that testimony were classified, leaving the public record incomplete on the specific Egyptian warning content.
Rebuttal
Classification of intelligence committee testimony is standard practice and does not constitute evidence of cover-up. The classified portions may or may not contain information about the Egyptian warning.
Egyptian intelligence-sharing with Israel: documented cooperation channel
SupportingEgypt and Israel have maintained intelligence-sharing channels as part of their 1979 peace treaty relationship and subsequent security cooperation. The existence of such a channel makes the warning claim operationally plausible; it does not establish the specific content of any pre-October-7 communication.
Counter-Evidence2
Netanyahu PMO denied receiving specific actionable warning
DebunkingStrongPrime Minister Netanyahu's office issued a denial stating that Netanyahu had not received a specific warning about the attack's nature, scale, or timing. The PMO distinguished between general threat assessments and operationally specific intelligence.
No evidence Israel deliberately ignored a specific operational warning
DebunkingStrongThe distinction between receiving a general threat-elevation warning and receiving a specific operational warning with date, location, and method is critical. No declassified evidence establishes that Israel received the latter and consciously chose not to act.
Timeline
Egyptian intelligence reportedly conveys threat warning to Israel
According to subsequent reporting, Egyptian intelligence conveyed a threat warning to Israeli counterparts approximately three days before the October 7 attack, warning of an imminent significant operation from Gaza. The specific content of this communication remains disputed.
Hamas launches mass assault on southern Israel
Hamas launches its largest military operation, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking approximately 250 hostages. The scale and surprise of the attack immediately raise questions about intelligence failure. Israeli security services are caught without adequate defensive posture along the Gaza border.
Egyptian FM Shoukry and Israeli Defence Minister Gallant make warning-consistent statements
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry publicly states Egypt warned Israel of 'something big' from Gaza before October 7. Israeli Defence Minister Gallant's statements are consistent with receipt of some warning. Netanyahu's PMO denies Netanyahu received a specific actionable alert.
Source →Israeli State Comptroller publishes Oct 7 intelligence failure report
The State Comptroller releases a report documenting systemic failures in threat assessment before October 7, including insufficient weighting of warning indicators. The report does not resolve the specific Egyptian warning content question but confirms the broader intelligence-failure picture.
Verdict
Egyptian officials publicly stated that Egypt warned Israel of a significant threat from Gaza before October 7 2023. Israeli Defence Minister Gallant's statements were consistent with receipt of some warning. Netanyahu's office denied receiving a specific actionable warning about the attack's scale. Whether the warning was specific and operationally actionable — and whether it was ignored — remains disputed between the governments and is not resolved by the Israeli State Comptroller's July 2024 report.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Egypt really warn Israel before October 7?
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry publicly stated on 9 October 2023 that Egypt had warned Israel of an imminent significant threat from Gaza before the attack. An Egyptian intelligence official was quoted by the AP making a similar claim. The warning is confirmed at a general level; whether it was specific enough to be operationally actionable is disputed between the Egyptian and Israeli governments.
Did Netanyahu know the October 7 attack was coming?
Netanyahu's office denied receiving a specific warning about the attack's nature, scale, or timing. The Israeli State Comptroller's July 2024 report documented systemic intelligence failures, including underweighting of warning indicators — but did not establish that Netanyahu personally received and ignored a specific operational alert. The distinction between systemic failure and deliberate ignorance is evidentially significant.
What did the Israeli State Comptroller report find?
The July 2024 State Comptroller report found systemic failures in threat assessment before October 7, including insufficient weighting of warning indicators in the weeks before the attack. It documented institutional and analytical failures. It did not resolve the specific question of what the Egyptian warning contained or whether it reached decision-makers in actionable form.
Do Egypt and Israel share intelligence regularly?
Sources
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Further Reading
- articleEgypt warned Israel of 'something big' — AP investigation — Associated Press (2023)
- articleOctober 7: what the intelligence community missed — Foreign Affairs (2024)
- paperIsraeli State Comptroller report on Oct 7 intelligence failure — Israeli State Comptroller (2024)