Lebanese State Security sent a formal written report to President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab on 20 July 2020 — 15 days before the explosion — explicitly identifying the ammonium nitrate in Hangar 12 as an imminent danger. The report was received. No action was taken. This document is the clearest single piece of evidence for deliberate inaction at the highest levels.

Lebanese customs director-general Badri Daher sent letters in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (multiple), and 2018 to Lebanese judiciary requesting authorisation to re-export or destroy the ammonium nitrate. Each letter went unanswered or was circulated between authorities without resolution. The multi-year paper trail documents institutional neglect at minimum and deliberate inaction at most.

The 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate were impounded from the MV Rhosus in 2014 after the ship's owner abandoned it in Beirut. The material was stored in Hangar 12 for six years before detonating. The storage duration and the material's explosive properties were known to port authorities, customs, and government officials.

Military judge Fadi Sawan charged several current and former ministers with negligence. Two of the charged ministers — both politically connected — filed a successful legal challenge, and Sawan was removed from the case in February 2021. The removal followed the normal form of Lebanese judicial procedure but reflected the use of legal mechanisms to obstruct the investigation.

Civilian judge Tarek Bitar, appointed to continue the investigation, issued summonses to senior officials including Amal-linked politicians Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaiter. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah publicly called for Bitar's removal. Multiple court injunctions suspended Bitar's investigation. As of 2026 it remains effectively paralysed.

Despite documented evidence of foreknowledge and systematic obstruction of the judicial investigations, no minister, senior official, or port authority figure has been convicted of criminal responsibility for the explosion or the failure to act on documented warnings.

All credible investigations — including those by Lebanese authorities, international forensic teams, and independent researchers — agree that the explosion was caused by the detonation of the ammonium nitrate stored in Hangar 12. The cause of the explosion is not the subject of a conspiracy theory; the cover-up concerns accountability for foreknowledge and negligence.

Some analysts argue that the judicial obstruction reflects longstanding dysfunction and sectarian power-sharing in Lebanon's judicial and political system rather than a deliberate coordinated cover-up in the conventional sense. The distinction between systemic dysfunction and active cover-up is contested.

Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system (Taif Agreement) distributes port authority oversight across multiple ministries and political blocs — Hezbollah, Amal, Future Movement, and the Lebanese Forces each held influence over different state institutions. The failure to remove the ammonium nitrate over six years reflects collective institutional dysfunction across factional lines rather than a unified conspiracy by any single actor to maintain access to the explosive material. Attributing the cover-up to one political bloc requires explaining why competing factions with strong incentives to expose rivals did not do so.

Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation was repeatedly suspended by parliament-immunity claims from multiple politicians across sectarian lines — a pattern consistent with Lebanon's documented norm of political elites using parliamentary immunity to block criminal liability. This obstruction is real and documented, but it represents the Lebanese political class collectively protecting itself from accountability for collective negligence — a different phenomenon from a coordinated pre-blast conspiracy to retain explosive material for deliberate purposes, which lacks direct evidentiary support.

Lebanese State Security sent a formal written report to President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab on 20 July 2020 — 15 days before the explosion — explicitly identifying the ammonium nitrate in Hangar 12 as an imminent danger. The report was received. No action was taken. This document is the clearest single piece of evidence for deliberate inaction at the highest levels.

Lebanese customs director-general Badri Daher sent letters in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (multiple), and 2018 to Lebanese judiciary requesting authorisation to re-export or destroy the ammonium nitrate. Each letter went unanswered or was circulated between authorities without resolution. The multi-year paper trail documents institutional neglect at minimum and deliberate inaction at most.

The 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate were impounded from the MV Rhosus in 2014 after the ship's owner abandoned it in Beirut. The material was stored in Hangar 12 for six years before detonating. The storage duration and the material's explosive properties were known to port authorities, customs, and government officials.

Military judge Fadi Sawan charged several current and former ministers with negligence. Two of the charged ministers — both politically connected — filed a successful legal challenge, and Sawan was removed from the case in February 2021. The removal followed the normal form of Lebanese judicial procedure but reflected the use of legal mechanisms to obstruct the investigation.

Civilian judge Tarek Bitar, appointed to continue the investigation, issued summonses to senior officials including Amal-linked politicians Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaiter. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah publicly called for Bitar's removal. Multiple court injunctions suspended Bitar's investigation. As of 2026 it remains effectively paralysed.

Despite documented evidence of foreknowledge and systematic obstruction of the judicial investigations, no minister, senior official, or port authority figure has been convicted of criminal responsibility for the explosion or the failure to act on documented warnings.

Some analysts argue that the judicial obstruction reflects longstanding dysfunction and sectarian power-sharing in Lebanon's judicial and political system rather than a deliberate coordinated cover-up in the conventional sense. The distinction between systemic dysfunction and active cover-up is contested.

All credible investigations — including those by Lebanese authorities, international forensic teams, and independent researchers — agree that the explosion was caused by the detonation of the ammonium nitrate stored in Hangar 12. The cause of the explosion is not the subject of a conspiracy theory; the cover-up concerns accountability for foreknowledge and negligence.

Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system (Taif Agreement) distributes port authority oversight across multiple ministries and political blocs — Hezbollah, Amal, Future Movement, and the Lebanese Forces each held influence over different state institutions. The failure to remove the ammonium nitrate over six years reflects collective institutional dysfunction across factional lines rather than a unified conspiracy by any single actor to maintain access to the explosive material. Attributing the cover-up to one political bloc requires explaining why competing factions with strong incentives to expose rivals did not do so.

Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation was repeatedly suspended by parliament-immunity claims from multiple politicians across sectarian lines — a pattern consistent with Lebanon's documented norm of political elites using parliamentary immunity to block criminal liability. This obstruction is real and documented, but it represents the Lebanese political class collectively protecting itself from accountability for collective negligence — a different phenomenon from a coordinated pre-blast conspiracy to retain explosive material for deliberate purposes, which lacks direct evidentiary support.