Analysis

Origins: From Project Blue Book to AARO

The modern AARO apparatus has institutional predecessors stretching back decades. The U.S. Air Force ran Project Sign (1948), Project Grudge (1949), and most famously Project Blue Book (1952–1969), which investigated 12,618 reported sightings before being closed on the grounds that no UAP presented a national security threat and none was identified as extraterrestrial. The Condon Report (1969), commissioned by the Air Force and written by physicist Edward Condon at the University of Colorado, concluded that further systematic UFO study was unlikely to yield scientific benefit — a conclusion disputed by some scientists at the time.

The modern reactivation of official interest was driven primarily by reporting within the Department of Defense and intelligence community about UAP encounters by military aviators. The Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP), a mostly classified program that ran from 2007 to 2012, was funded at $22 million through the black budget at the direction of then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Luis Elizondo, who ran AATIP (or a successor office, depending on the account), left the DoD in 2017 and became a prominent public advocate for UAP disclosure.

In 2017, the New York Times published a front-page investigation documenting AATIP and releasing three declassified Navy infrared videos — later designated FLIR1, GIMBAL, and GOFAST — showing UAP encounters by Navy pilots. This reporting, and the subsequent Navy decision to formally acknowledge the videos as authentic, triggered a new wave of congressional and public interest.

AARO: Mandate and Structure

AARO was formally established on July 20, 2022, under Public Law 117-81 (NDAA FY2022). Its mandate is broader than any predecessor office:

• All-domain scope. AARO investigates objects and phenomena in air, space, sea surface, subsurface, and "trans-medium" (moving between domains) contexts.
• Historical record review. AARO was specifically tasked with reviewing all U.S. government UAP investigation programs since 1945, including classified programs, to assess whether any government effort had recovered non-human intelligence or materials.
• Reporting to Congress. AARO is required to submit annual unclassified reports to relevant congressional committees and maintain a public-facing reporting mechanism.
• Whistleblower support. The Intelligence Authorization Act for FY2023 established a secure reporting mechanism for individuals with knowledge of government UAP programs to report to AARO without risking unauthorized disclosure prosecutions.

The office is directed by a Senate-confirmed Director (a position held by Sean Kirkpatrick from 2022 to 2023, followed by Jon Kosloski beginning in 2024) and reports to the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security.

The 2024 Historical Record Report, Volume I

AARO released its Historical Record Report (HRR), Volume I, in March 2024. This report represented the most comprehensive official review of U.S. government UAP programs since Project Blue Book.

Key findings of Volume I included:

• AARO found no credible evidence that any U.S. government investigation, classified program, or intelligence community element had recovered non-human technology or biological material at any time.
• AARO reviewed hundreds of classified programs and interviewed dozens of individuals with claimed knowledge of recovered extraterrestrial material. In each case, the claims could not be corroborated, were based on second- or third-hand information, or were found to be misidentifications of classified domestic programs (advanced aircraft, surveillance platforms, or nuclear-related programs).
• AARO identified a pattern in which individuals with access to classified programs came to believe — incorrectly — that material from those programs was of non-human origin, often due to compartmentalisation that prevented them from learning the true nature of what they were handling.
• The report acknowledged that a significant portion of UAP reports reflect genuine anomalous phenomena (sensor artifacts, atmospheric events, adversary platforms) that have not yet been resolved, but stated this was a different claim from the assertion of extraterrestrial origin.

The 2025 Historical Record Report, Volume II

Volume II of the Historical Record Report, released in 2025, extended the review to additional programs, archives, and interviews. Its findings were consistent with Volume I:

• No recovered non-human intelligence, no reverse-engineered extraterrestrial craft, no evidence of a government program concealing such material.
• Additional resolution of specific cases that had generated persistent claims in the UAP community, including several that were traced to misidentified classified unmanned aerial vehicles and reconnaissance platforms.
• AARO noted ongoing unresolved UAP cases — particularly a subset involving military sensor data showing objects with flight characteristics that could not be attributed to known atmospheric or aerodynamic phenomena — but emphasised that unresolved does not mean extraterrestrial.

The Grusch Congressional Testimony (July 2023)

On July 26, 2023, David Grusch — a former intelligence official and Air Force officer who had served as a representative to the UAP Task Force — testified before the House Oversight Committee's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs. Grusch claimed under oath that the U.S. government possessed recovered non-human craft and biological material, and that he had been denied access to the relevant programs when attempting to investigate for the UAP Task Force.

Grusch's testimony was unprecedented in its directness. He did not produce documentary evidence at the hearing. He subsequently stated he had provided a classified briefing to AARO and to the Intelligence Community Inspector General, who reportedly found his initial complaint had merit as an "urgent concern" requiring investigation — though this designation referred to the process, not the substance of the claims.

AARO's 2024 and 2025 Historical Record Reports did not corroborate Grusch's claims, despite specifically reviewing programs he identified. Grusch has disputed AARO's conclusions, arguing the office lacks sufficient access to the most highly classified programs.

The UAP Disclosure Act

The UAP Disclosure Act, modeled on the JFK Records Act, was proposed by Senator Chuck Schumer and Senator Mike Rounds in 2023 and passed in modified form as part of the NDAA FY2024. It established a review board with authority to declassify UAP-related records and required government agencies to report all UAP-related materials to a central repository. The Act explicitly contemplated the possibility that some reviewed materials might involve "non-human intelligence" and established legal protections for individuals providing such information.

The existence of the Act does not itself constitute evidence of recovered extraterrestrial material; it is a framework designed to declassify whatever exists, including material that may ultimately be entirely mundane.

What AARO Is and Is Not

AARO's work represents genuine official engagement with unresolved aerial phenomena that warrant investigation on national security grounds. The majority of unresolved UAP are assessed by AARO as likely explained by sensor limitations, foreign adversary platforms, or atmospheric phenomena once sufficient data is collected.

AARO is not a confirmation of any conspiracy framing. Its investigation of Grusch-type claims was thorough and returned negative results. That result is itself significant: the U.S. government's own designated investigative body, with access to classified programs, has found no evidence of recovered non-human technology after a multi-year review.

Ongoing Status

As of 2025, AARO continues to operate, receive reports from military and civilian sources, and produce periodic classified and unclassified reporting to Congress. The investigation is ongoing in the literal sense that new UAP are reported continuously and some percentage of them remain unresolved. AARO's budget and staffing have been expanded relative to predecessor offices, reflecting Congressional seriousness about the mandate.

The question of what constitutes genuine UAP remains open. The question of whether any confirmed UAP are of non-human origin remains, as of all published official reporting, unanswered in the affirmative.